Tropical Storm Debby expected to turn toward Texas

Tropical Storm Debby is already setting records; This is the first time on record that four named storms have developed in the Atlantic Basin before July 1.

As you can see in the satellite loop above,?heavy thundershowers are falling on the right side of the storm. Strong wind shear from the west has created a lop-sided storm. Hurricane Hunters flying through the storm found a closed circulation and estimated surface winds to be about 50 mph. The lowest pressure is actually on the left side of the rain shield.

You can get the latest forecast track and computer models on our website.

Data from today's Hurricane Hunter flight won't be incorporated into the forecast models until this evening. But forget the models for a moment and look at what's actually happening.?If you look closely at the satellite loop above?you'll see a counter-clockwise spin in the clouds south of Louisiana.? That's low pressure in the upper atmosphere?which I believe will pull this storm westward. The trough along the eastern seaboard is probably?too far north to pull Debby toward Florida now.?

This storm will be moving near the "loop current" in the Gulf of Mexico, as seen in shades of yellow and orange on the image below. This deep warm water could allow the storm to intensify if wind shear?aloft?weakens.

This tropical storm will be out over the Gulf of Mexico for?several more days. The surrounding weather pattern and steering currents will change day-to-day. As I always say when dealing with tropical weather systems, "The forecast will likely change."

I plan to update the Houston Weather Blog at least once a day. But you can get updates on the storm throughout the day and night if you follow me on Twitter and Facebook.? Anytime I find out something new about the storm, I'll send out a quick update on social media.??

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